Second Basemen Rankings

h2h Corner

By: Albert Lang

Ladies and Gentleman, your 2008 AL MVP is a second baseman. He also, probably, went late in every 10 team draft. In retrospect, the 2008 spring training suggested second base was a position on the rise, particularly when players like Dustin Pedroia were more of an afterthought in drafts.

Going into 2009, however, it appears there are only two healthy lockdown reliable second basemen (and the reigning MVP isn’t one of them). After this dynamic duo, things go from good (with upside) to dicey to scary. Ultimately, you’re reading this article because you’re looking for a second basemen you can trust (or because I’m spamming you). With some of the options so devoid of consistency (Rickie Weeks, Brandon Phillips and Dan Uggla please stand up), you’ll want to draft well, or else consign your fate to whoever has the hot hand in the free agent carousel (Jose Lopez, Alexei Ramirez, Kelly Johnson, Casey Blake...you get the picture).

The cream of the crop was supposed to be Chase Utley (I had finished a version of this article the day the news came out). Utley is a fantastic player, someone anyone would be happy to choose as their only second baseman—except for this calamity. Last year, he did an overwhelming amount of damage in April through the end of May (19 HRs, 49 RBIs and .310 average). In my opinion, the loss of time and 200+ at bats moves Utley into the 10th round range. He should be the 13th second basement off the board.

Still, many of you, I know, would like to make the upside play. You think you can make due with a below-average second baseman for half the season then kick into overdrive with Utley in the line-up (especially if you can grab him in the 6th round or so). I’ve been there. I’ve thought those thoughts. When it comes down to it, there are just too many risks associated with this play. When he does come back, will the injury still hamper him? Since he misses all of spring training, how long will it take him to get back into Utley shape?

This injury immediately bumps Ian Kinsler to the top of the board for second base. While he is not as durable as one might hope, Kinsler has excellent tools. If he can play 160 games, he could be the real 2009 Chase Utley. His numbers have been staggering (see my argument here). Still, the injury bug has to be a slight concern.

For some reason, people don’t seem to love Brian Roberts as much as I do. In interest of full disclosure, I’m a Baltimore Orioles fan. There is no bias, however, in B-Rob’s numbers. Last year, I drafted him early and was handsomely rewarded with a .296 average, 107 runs and 40 SBs – he even threw in 57 RBIs. Those numbers mirror his 2007 and are in line with 2006, (when he missed 20 games or so due to injury). Quite simply, he has proven that he scores runs, hits for a decent average and steals many bases. If Roberts is available anywhere in the third round of your draft, grab him. Think about it this way: if you can get Brian Roberts in the 3rd or Utley in the 6/7, you're going to be much much happier w/ B-Rob a couple of rounds earlier.

Chone Figgins could be a B-Rob light (minus the consistency). He is not a bad choice if he goes where he should, about the 8th/9th rounds. Figgins could offer a .280 average, 80+ runs, and 35+ SBs. Not horrible for that spot in the draft (and probably better numbers than what you can now expect from Utley).

2009 will test your faith in Brandon Phillips: which half year will show up? I loved him going into last year. He rewarded that love with a phenomenal first half, in which he hit .280 with 15 HRs, 58 RBIs and 19 SBs. His second half, however, was disastrous (.225/6/20/4). I’m willing to roll the dice with him as the 4th second basemen off the board, especially if he is available in the 4th/5th rounds. That could be a sneaky play if you get frozen out of the top steady second basemen. Phillips could solidify a weak position without being too costly and could very well end up being the top second basemen at the end of the year.

A potential sleeper for you: Mark Ellis – I could see taking a chance on him. There are some ifs surrounding him (will he stay healthy, will he get to bat in front of Matt Holliday (does this even matter), etc.), but his price will not be nearly as high as someone like Howie Kendrick. If those ifs work out, you could be looking at 20+ home runs – in his last full season (2007), he hit .276 with 19 HRs and 76 RBIs. In 140 fewer at bats last year, he hit 12 HRs and managed to steal 14 bases. A 15 HR/15 SB season is not out of his reach.

The opposite side to the California coin is Howie Kendrick. He falls into the same level of dislike that I have for Robinson Cano (detailed here). Both of them are, for reasons beyond me, tremendously overvalued. The tools are supposedly there, but the production definitely is not. Kendrick has played 72, 88 and 92 games in three “full” seasons. His high watermarks include a tidy .322 average, five HRs, 39 RBIs, 55 runs and 11 SBs. Combining his best seasons doesn’t even make a top 10 second basemen for me. If you’re in a shallow league and want to take a chance on upside knowing the free agent pool will be stocked with the reliable carousel mentioned above, go for it. But in deeper leagues, or more competitive leagues, I’d prefer to secure the services of a second bagger I know I can trust – kind of like going to a bookstore and buying almost any Graham Greene novel (with the possible exception of the Power and the Glory – wasn’t really a fan).

Last year’s top 13:
Chase Utley (last year’s overall ranking: 9) Finished: 2nd among second basemen
Brandon Phillips (10) Finished: 9th among second basemen
Brian Roberts (18) Finished: 4th among second basemen
Dan Uggla (38) Finished: 6th among second basemen
BJ Upton (40) Finished: 7th among second basemen
Chone Figgins (52) Finished: 20th among second basemen
Ian Kinsler (61) Finished 3rd among second basemen
Kelly Johnson (68) Finished: 10th among second basemen
Robinson Cano (72) Finished: 16th among second basemen
Placido Polanco (78) Finished: 11th among second basemen
Jeff Kent (81) Finished: 32nd among second basemen
Freddy Sanchez (95) Finished: 27th among second basemen
Orlando Hudson (96) Finished: 28th among second basemen

Outside of the Dustin Pedroia oversight (he finished 1st), these rankings are pretty spot on. The high level of trust in Brandon Phillips and Dan Uggla sure looked good in the first half of the season, but, alas, slumps and injuries (or reversions to form?) derailed both their seasons, as well as my keeper team which started Phillips at second and Uggla at IF.

I liked Ian Kinsler, but not enough. I love Kinsler for next year. My dislike and low ranking of Robinson Cano was accurate. I’m still dubious on whether he can hit for a high average. Meanwhile Jeff Kent gets the Todd Helton first basemen ranking treatment.

Below, I love the top two. After that, I feel like there is a gulf of consistency between them and 3-5. With a repeat year, or something close to it, Dustin Pedroia would vault into the top tier (along with a healthy Utley) for 2010. For now though, if you want to guarantee yourself an elite second basemen, I’d stick to Ian Kinsler and Brian Roberts.

Complete Second Baseman Ranks (* denotes projected starter):
Ian Kinsler*
Brian Roberts*
Dan Uggla*
Brandon Phillips*
Dustin Pedroia*
Mark Derosa*
Chone Figgins (if he retains eligibility)*
Jose Lopez*
Alexei Ramirez (sophomore slump?)*
Kelly Johnson*
Robinson Cano (eh – as discussed here)*
Casey Blake (depending on where he ends up)*
Chase Utley (when does he really return from injury?)*
Rickie Weeks (Will he be traded? Will he get playing time? Will his body work?)
Placido Polanco*
Ryan Theriot*
Akinori Iwamura*
Ty Wiggington
Marco Scutaro
Freddy Sanchez (a healthier version of Howie Kendrick)*
Kazuo Matsui*
Clint Barmes
Ray Durham
Felipe Lopez
Mark Ellis (Sneaky play here with upside of 20+ HRs)
Alexi Cassila
Jeff Kent (Yeah…he got old)
Orlando Hudson (He could move up depending on what line-up he slots into)*
Jose Bautista
Blake DeWitt
Ronnie Belliard
Howie Kendrick (I don’t like Howie Kendrick…guys who derive most of their value from BA are not my favorite)*
Asdrubal Cabrera
Ian Stewart (3b of the future? At bats could free up if the Rocks move Atkins)
Ramon Vazquez (could put up interesting numbers with full time at bats)

First Basemen Rankings

h2h Corner

By: Albert Lang

I recently took a business trip to the west coast – I learned that it is far. Thankfully my roommate (he is a DJ and also really good at Survivor Fantasy) lent me his iPod. Since he is a DJ, he has loads of pop music. While I still love listening to the whimsical Don’t Think Twice It’s Alright, I cant deny the joy I get from Burnin’ Up or Hot N Cold (man Katy Perry’s songwriter = the amazing). I can’t remember a time when pop music was so consistent and fraught with as many heavy hitters, which, now makes the rambling preamble pertinent.

The not-so-hot corner (unless Ryan Howard [lefty] is up) represents a deep pool of home run hitters and RBI collectors. This is, perhaps, the steadiest position, year in year out. Outfield is deep, and you start three (sometimes more) for a reason. But outfielders possess the full gamut of fantasy statistics, while, with first basemen, you really only need think about HR/RBI production.

There isn’t anything shocking in these rankings – I’ve long been a fan of Lance Berkman, although I never seem to get him. His stolen base output (18) was great, but don’t expect that when figuring out your plans on draft day.

In my opinion, there is a core of nine reliable first basemen. This means you can wait on the position in drafts and try to acquire elite players at more elusive positions and stat categories early. There is no shame, however, in securing HR/RBI production – week in, week out – by grabbing an Albert Pujols or Ryan Howard in the first round.

That said, I am not sold on Carlos Delgado, Derrek Lee (mostly because of how he spells his first name), David Ortiz and Carlos Pena. Quite simply, where did Delgado’s first half self go? In April, May and June, Delgado hit .198, .258 and .229 with 3, 5 and 6 home runs respectively. Regardless, that horrendous start is in there somewhere, and it could come back like that sketchy rash you got vacationing in Tijuana.

Lee doesn’t provide the power or RBIs slotting into the middle of a potent line-up that an owner would like to see. He seems far removed from his MVP-esque numbers in 2005, when he hit .335 with 46 HRs, 107 RBIs and 15 SBs. Last year (a comeback year of sorts), he hit .291 with 20 HRs, 119 RBIs and 8 SBs. In his last three seasons he has hit a combined 50 HRs; reaching his 2005 levels now seems unattainable.

Meanwhile there are a lot of question marks around Big Papi. What does the loss of Manny, if anything, mean? Will Jason Bay provide the necessary protection? Will his wrist heal fully? He appeared to be cheating on fast balls down the stretch. With first base, I’d rather not take a chance and draft him early expecting Morneau-, Fielder- or Youkilis-level production. Given where I rank him, there is a good chance for upside. I see him as a solid UTIL on someone’s squad.

I bought heavily into Carlos Pena last year. It didn’t pay the dividends I would have liked, especially when Adrian Gonzalez was still on the board 2-3 rounds later. That said, Pena provides a good chance at 35+ HRs and 100+ RBIs. I guess what I’m saying is, if he is the 13^th first basemen off the board, you have a good upside play on your hands.

I also really like Joey Votto – he could provide some great stats in that ballpark. In what was essentially a full season, he hit .297 with 24 HRs, 84 RBIs and 7 SBs. Lots of upside there.

Last year’s top 15*:

1. Prince Fielder (last year’s overall ranking: 14) Finished: 11^th among first basemen
2. David Ortiz (19) Finished: 22^nd among First Baseman
3. Ryan Howard (23) Finished: 4^th among First Baseman
4. Carlos Pena (25) Finished: 20^th among First Baseman
5. Albert Pujols (27) Finished: 1^st among First Baseman
6. Lance Berkman (28) Finished 2^nd among First Baseman
7. Justin Morneau (41) Finished: 9^th among First Baseman
8. Adrian Gonzalez (50) Finished: 8^th among First Baseman
9. Derrek Lee (66) Finished: 14^th among First Baseman
10. Mark Teixeira (69) Finished: 3^rd among First Baseman
11. Carlos Delgado (76) Finished: 10^th among First Baseman
12. Kevin Youkilis (77) Finished: 6^th among First Baseman
13. Paul Konerko (83) Finished: 37^th among First Baseman
14. Adam LaRoche (89) Finished: 25^th among First Baseman
15. Todd Helton (98) Finished: 52^nd among First Baseman

*Miguel Cabrera wasn’t ranked because he didn’t have first basemen eligibility yet.

Man…Todd Helton was the first draft pick in fantasy I ever made – it’s sad to see him fall to these depths. What can you do though? I wasn’t too interested in him last year and want no part of him this year.

I was a little too bullish on Carlos Pena it appears, and the David Ortiz injury really hurt that prediction. I thought Prince Fielder was the second coming of Ryan Howard…I was wrong. I do expect the same kind of season next year, maybe a tick better.

It pays to go with consistency at first base, which is why Ryan Howard, Albert Pujols, Lance Berkman, Mark Teixeira and Adrian Gonzalez make up my top five fantasy first baseman next year.

Complete First Baseman Ranks:

1. Albert Pujols
2. Ryan Howard
3. Lance Berkman (probably will not repeat his stolen base performance)
4. Mark Teixeira (regardless of where he lands)
5. Adrian Gonzalez
6. Miguel Cabrera
7. Justin Morneau
8. Prince Fielder
9. Kevin Youkilis
10. Carlos Delgado (kind of scary putting him here, cant argue with 2/3 of his season though)
11. Derrek Lee
12. David Ortiz (no Manny, no problem? Hurt wrist = problem)
13. Carlos Pena (legit 30+ HR possibility)
14. Jason Giambi (where will he end up?)
15. Joey Votto
16. Jorge Cantu (could regress)
17. Mark Reynolds (prefer him as your 3b – one of these years he will put together a good *lucky* batting average campaign)
18. Mark Derosa
19. Aubrey Huff
20. Mike Jacobs
21. Conor Jackson (man, did he fade)
22. Adam LaRoche
23. Chris Davis
24. Nick Swisher
25. James Loney (not so high on him…never was)
26. Ryan Garko (see catcher rankings)
27. Kevin Millar (consistently below average)
28. Alex Gordon (so woefully inconsistent)
29. Lyle Overbay (consistent)
30. Eric Hinske
31. Casey Kotchman
32. Victor Martinez (you want him for his other eligibility)
33. Ty Wiggington
34. Paul Konerko (could he be D.O.N.E.?)
35. Billy Butler (let’s just say, I don’t believe in the Royals)
36. Matt Stairs (platoon in Philly, if Burrell gone?)
37. Daric Barton
38. Rich Aurillia
39. Greg Dobbs (ditto the Stairs talk)
40. Ross Gload
41. Darin Erstad (he wasn’t entirely unusable last year…but yeah, he was close)
42. Martin Prado (interesting numbers down the stretch: .335 BA, 25 runs, 2 HRs, 25 RBIs in the second half, massive positional flexibility, cool name)

H2H Catcher Rankings

Catcher Rankings

“Variable, this is Knife! Over! Variable, this is Knife! Over! Variable, this is Knife! Where the heck are you!?!?”

With that out of the way, let me clean up the catching variables: depending on where Cap’n ‘Tek ends up, he could fall completely off this list or move up (you assume someone paying him good free agent money would give him more playing time than the Sox might).

There are also a lot of rumblings about Boston trading for a young stud catcher (which should probably shake up/clarify the Texas catcher situation). Until that stuff plays itself out, it’s hard to rank the Saltalamacchias and Teagardens of the world.

I don’t know if there is a ton of surprise here outside of the Indians catcher position. This is more an indictment of Ryan Garko and Travis Hafner than anything else. It is conceivable that Victor Martinez slides to first base or DH to make way for Shoppach to get more at bats. While getting his first opportunity at consistent playing time, Shoppach hit three times as many HRs (21) and twice as many doubles (27) as last year – granted he had about twice as many at bats in 2008 than in 2007. He also scored 67 runs (and if the Indians offense improves) that number could increase to somewhere in the 80s in 2009. He was a second round draft pick by the Boston Red Sox, so there is potential here. It will be important to see how Matt Laporta does in camp – if he can snag an everyday spot in the line-up that could limit Shoppach’s upside.

Mike Napoli at 13 seems about right to me. In some (smaller) leagues I might take a chance on him over proven vets like AJ Pierzynski or Ramon Hernandez. He did hit .273 last year with 20 HRs and 7 stolen bases. He could conceivably be a 25 HR 10 SB guy. That combination of stats in a catcher is intriguing.

There’s also Matt Wieters. Let’s see if he breaks camp first before he gets ranked. But man, am I looking forward to his debut. I haven’t been this excited since Ben MacDonald…we all know what can happen with prospects, eh J.R. Towles?

“Circular error probable zero. Impact with high-order detonation. Have a nice day.”

Complete Ranks:

1. Brian McCann (overall ranking: 61)
2. Russell Martin (69)
3. Joe Mauer (76)
4. Geo Soto (87)
5. Ryan Doumit (125) – can he stay healthy?
6. Jorge Posada (128) – ditto
7. Bengie Molina (132)
8. Victor Martinez (148) – where has the power gone?
9. Kelly Shoppach (153) – will he get at-bats?
10. AJ Pierzynski (164)
11. Chris Iannetta (169)
12. Ramon Hernandez (176) – watch our for Matt Wieters
13. Mike Napoli (178) – will he claim that stat potential?
14. Chris Snyder (185)
15. Dioner Navarro (209)
16. Kurt Suzuki (210)
17. Yadier Molina (212)
18. Gerald Laird (218)
19. Ivan Rodriguez (223)
20. Rod Barajas (225)
21. John Buck (236)
22. Miguel Olivo (241)
23. Jason Veritek (249) – his landing spot could answer a lot of question marks.
24. Pablo Sandoval
25. Jeff Clement

Last year’s top 10*:

1. Russell Martin (last year’s overall ranking: 29) Finished: 3^rd among catchers
2. Victor Martinez (60) Finished: 27^th among catchers
3. Jorge Posada (76) Finished: 39^th among catchers
4. Brian McCann (102) Finished: 2^nd among catchers
5. Joe Maurer (103) Finished: 1^st among catchers
6. Geovany Soto (109) Finished 5^th among catchers
7. Kenji Johjima (110) Finished: 34^th among catchers
8. Bengie Molina (160) Finished: 6^th among catchers
9. A.J. Pierzynski (175) Finished: 8^th among catchers
10. Ryan Doumit (178) Finished: 4^th among catchers
11. Mike Napoli (195) Finished: 10^th among catchers
12. Ramon Hernandez (205) Finished: 11^th among catchers

*I only ranked 12 catchers last year for two reasons. One: I didn’t play in a league – beside my 18-team SABR auction competition, which was an entirely different ranking experience – that had more than 10 teams. Two: typically people don’t double up on catchers. Frankly, after the top five, it gets a little muddy anyway. The injuries to V-Mart and Posada hurt my initial rankings and Johjima being horrible didn’t help, but otherwise, it appears my rankings ended up suitable for a standard 5x5 h2h league.

By: Albert Lang

H2H Rankings, Part I

I’m writing this article in protest – it’s certainly not because I need the money. My editors – I guess in keeping with Fantasy Baseball 101’s mission – won’t let me post my Survivor: Gabon, Earth’s Last Eden fantasy breakdown. Unfortunately (as you cringe), this is not a joke. I play and get killed in Fantasy Survivor every year. I once dominated Fantasy Apprentice (where have you gone Donald?!?) and posted good showings in Fantasy college football (love me some P.J. Hill). Of course I play fantasy football (4 leagues) and fantasy basketball (I won three years in a row, but failed to reach the finals last year).

Notwithstanding all these diverse interests, fantasy baseball remains my true (and first) love. This game or philosophic sporting viewpoint reminds me of Al from Step by Step – bear with me. This seminal program occurred at a decisive time for me: TGIF was still reasonably cool to watch and I was entering my teen years. So, I dedicate this column to Christine Lakin (nope, didn’t have to look it up).

Keeping this in mind, I’m going to run through my initial hitter rankings step-by-step for 2009 h2h 5x5 standard leagues. First I’ll provide a global perspective, then I’ll go position by position and end with SPs and RPs. I separate hitters and pitchers in my rankings because they are wholly different animals. If you don’t know me, I greatly devalue pitchers.

The LIMA strategy was butter to my bread back in the day. I tweaked to include the “I can’t believe Aaron Harang will continue to fall to me in the 8th/9th round,” strategy. This year he went in the 6th/7th and he ended up on none of my teams. We’re grooming James Shields to take over Harang’s role. Pitcher rankings will be forthcoming in a post framed as an ode to Eliza Dushku (don’t tell me you didn’t watch Buffy the Vampire Slayer).

I normally spend my first 8-9 draft picks on hitters. Then I binge on pitchers from 10-17 or so and try to grab sleepers where I think appropriate. I also tend to hate drafting catchers early (so they will be inordinately low on my board). I had Russell Martin in 2007 and Soto this year. If you can get top-flight catcher production in the 18-30 rounds of a draft, you already have a leg up.

The Yankees I’m low on
Yes I hate the Yankees as an entity/demonic societal subgroup, but I’ve been on the record the last few years as loving Damon (#35) and Abreu (#24). I think Derek Jeter (#81 hitter) is overvalued – he had those 34 stolen bases in 2006, but that is the outlier. Since then he has averaged 13 and in 2005 tallied only 14. You know what you’ll get from him 110 runs, 10-15 HRs, 65-75 RBIs and 10-15 SBs. That, my friends, is a poor man’s Michael Young (#68 in the rankings)

Robinson Cano (#106) is a great second half hitter (.280 versus .327 lifetime). Unfortunately he started this season well below that career .280 at .246. Clearly, he has been useful in the second half of every season he’s played and he has some upside, but don’t pay for pinstripes or someone who can cripple your BA. Also, I don’t know if you can count on him producing a ton of runs, HRs or RBIs, especially if he continues to hit in the 7-9 spots in the lineup.

I loved Carlos Guillen (#157) in 2004 – he brought me my first h2h title (of course that was a league on 'roids – we used doubles, triples, CGs, no-nos, etc.). I actually traded Kevin Millwood for Miguel Cabrera and Troy Percival in that league, but I digress. In the last four years, Carlos has averaged 91.5 games played. I was offered AROD and Guillen for Jose Reyes in a league this year. I turned it down saying I valued Reyes over AROD (which I do) and that Guillen was waiver wire fodder. I was quickly rebuffed. Well, by the end of the year, Guillen was with the other losers at the high school dance – unclaimed and alone.

Speaking of Miguel Cabrera (#18)…outside of the first year, I haven’t been his biggest fan. I had him in the low-twenties last year, while he was a consensus top 12 pick or so. He is young and reliable, although not quite at the AROD/Pujols level in my mind (obviously given my rankings). He only averaged 88 runs in his last two seasons and provides virtually no stolen bases. Home Runs, RBIs and BA consistency are good, but you can get that in later rounds (Carlos Lee, Abreu, Vlad, Dunn, etc.). I’d much rather grab a multi-dimensional player in the first two rounds or someone who dominates a category or two (Ryan Howard).

Still, the biggest surprise of all: FIVE Nationals made the hitter rankings – I’m as dumbstruck as you.

On to the Christine Lakin squad (those I love more than anyone else does):
Grady Sizemore (#2): a lot has been written about him. He is great and should be MVP. I’ve ranked him in the top 12 the last two years. He provides two of the more statistically important categories: HRs and SBs. In h2h, those categories get the least amount of weekly points, so accumulating them is helpful. The runs will be there next year in Cleveland (they cant be this bad). I’m not worried about his BA decline as his Ks have also gone down – it’ll adjust. If I get a top 5 pick, I’m trading down and taking Grady and recouping a ton of value when the draft slithers back in the second round. In short, I wish I were one of Grady’s ladies.

Let me introduce you to Ian Kinsler (#15), second rounder. Apparently I have an affinity for short haired, kind of goofy looking ball players. People have forgotten that he was a legitimate MVP candidate before going down with an injury. While he may be assuming an injury-prone tag, he only missed 40 games this year and 30 last year. Plus his production for the season – not adjusted for the time he missed – was good enough for top 30 in my book. He also amassed 38 more hits this year than last year in just 35 more at bats. Bumping him up as a Chase Utley clone into the late second round doesn’t seem unreasonable to me. Also, if this global warming thing is true, it’s just going to get more and more humid in Arlington.

The other three surprise candidates all rank in the top 35: Matt Kemp (#21), Jason Bay (#23), and Shane Victorino (#32). Sign me up, I’m a signed, sealed, believer in Matt Kemp. He lowered his strike-outs by 65 in the second half, albeit in 80 fewer at bats. Those fewer at bats didn’t hinder his power, though, as he hit nine home runs both before and after the All Star break. Maybe I’m a little bullish on him by counting on a repeat SB performance, but for a player who might not have reached his full potential, I’d grab him in the second round and be ecstatic.

Jason Bay as a stolen base aficionado is clearly a one-hit wonder (where have you gone 2005?). Since joining the Red Sox, Bay, in 200 less at bats, had only 13 less home runs and remarkably 27 fewer RBIs than with the woeful Pirates. He’s good, he’s out of Pittsburgh, he ain’t a reach in the third round. He’s also anchoring my post-season fantasy team.

Shane Victorino (#32): I dubbed as the 2008 version of the 2007 version of Eric Byrnes. I loved Victorino, especially in relation to where he was going. But by the time it would be prudent to pick him, I had loaded my plate with so many OFs that I had to watch a lucky schmuck grab him and rejoice. Of course, as someone who loves Byrnes, you don’t need to remind me of his regression. Victorino doesn’t have the health issues Byrnes had, plays in a hitter’s park and slots into a delicious line-up. He was a sixth round pick by the Dodgers in 1999 and you should laugh to the championship if you get him around there.

So, how crazy are my h2h rankings? Let me know, post a comment!!!

By: Albert Lang

NL Fantasy Baseball MVP

Shortly after the playoffs end pundits Will review their choice for the National League MVP award. For us fantasy baseball folk, our analysis is a different. For example, in roto leagues, we value players who are dominant in specific categories. We favor the Corey Hart's of the league over the .250 30 homerun hitter. In real life, Carlos Delgado is likely to receive strong consideration from the beat writers for his ability to bring the Mets back from dead in the middle of the summer. And, indeed, Delgado was a valuable player in fantasy baseball as well, but he should not be fawned over as much since he is only a two-category player.

How do we go about choosing the most valuable fantasy player? There are many methodologies to consider. They include: VORP - Value over Replacement Player, position scarcity analysis, all around best statistics in the five hitting categories, or best value compared to draft position. Reasonable people may disagree on the choice, and that is part of the fun. For our purposes, we are not conducting a scientific analysis. Rather, we are going with the unscientific analysis of asking ourselves, "who would you have drafted first overall if you had the benefit of hindsight?" We do not consider value compared to draft position because we will consider players under that analysis in a separate article (Ryan Ludwick, Matt Kemp, Jorge Cantu, etc.). Here are the contenders:

Albert Pujols (.357-37-116-7-100)
Ryan Howard (.251-48-146-1-105)
Hanley Ramirez (.301-33-67-35-125)
Matt Holliday (.321-25-88-28-107)
David Wright (.302-33-124-15-114)
Lance Berkman (.312-29-106-18-114)

We believe these players were a cut above the rest in the National League this year. As a comparison, 30 players in the NL hit 25 or more homers, 14 had 100 rbi's or more, 11 had 25 steals or more, and 14 had a .300 batting average or higher.

And the winner is . . .

Albert Pujols. His .351 batting average is so far ahead of the average player that it really sets him apart. But his 37 homers and 116 rbi's are nothing to scoff at either. Pujols finished second in the NL in average, 4th in hr, 4th in rbi's, and 14th in runs. Although he only stole seven bases, his other stats are so dominant that he is most deserving of the NL fantasy baseball MVP award. It should also be noted that his preseason draft position fell due to fears that he would have surgery on his elbow. Compare him to his competitors.

Our runner up is Hanley Ramirez. Ramirez gets extra points for being an offensive force at shortstop, a position known for its scarcity of talent. His stolen bases and runs are clearly superior to most of the other players on the list, and his batting average and homers, especially when compared to other shortstops, are particularlyu impressive. In fact, his value over other NL shorstops is so great that it was hard not to choose him as MVP. But in the final analysis, Pujols' 50 extra points in batting average and 49 extra rbi's were the decider.

The other contenders have a similar story. Pujols dwarfs Matt Holiday's and Lance Berkman's stats in average, homers and rbi's. As a third basemen, David Wright is a strong contender and his stats are roughly similar to Pujols'. But Pujols had a batting average that was 55 points higher than Wright! That's like choosing someone who hit .245 over someone who hit .300. Conversely, Pujols' homers and rbi's pale in comparison to Ryan Howard's production. With a solid end of the season, Howard proved he was an offensive juggernaut, smashing 48 homers and driving in 146 runs. In fact, Howard's homers and especially his rbi's, are every bit as dominant as Pujols' batting average. But Howard loses out because he provides a net loss in two categories: batting average and steals. Howard's .251 average actually hurts most teams' batting average, and his one stolen base cannot compare to the others on this list.

Have a different opinion? Have a different choice in a H2H league? Feel free to share your opinion in the comment section.

Fantasy Baseball Playoffs

There’s Only ONE October!!! Really? And, only once a year can you play Fantasy Baseball Play-offs! And I bet you thought fantasy baseball season was over. Wrong.

Play-offs!?! Play-offs!?! Yes, fantasy baseball head to head play-offs exist.

Recently, my two best baseball buddies held a brief post-season draft. You can follow the standings here. If you need help incorporating into your local leagues, let me know and I can get you the spreadsheet. In general, you should follow typical h2h draft strategy (ignore pitchers, grab good hitters, diversify and claim HRs and SBs where possible).

Our version of post-season FB adds a new dimension: playing time, i.e. there is no redraft once players are eliminated.

So it behooves you to factor in players who will advance because then you get more pitching appearances and with that greater opportunities for Wins, Strike-outs, Saves, etc and more at-bats, which should help in almost every hitting category.

Still, I tend to agree that the baseball play-offs are more or less a crapshoot. So I draft on best available, others though draft from teams they think will move on. Sure, if two players are close, I’ll roll the dice with the guy on the team I think will go further, but in general, grab best available.

When the Cardinals won the World Series I had the 3rd/4th picks, I took Pujols. I won. Conversely, last year, Chris loaded up on Rockies and was rewarded.

The draft went like this: http://tinyurl.com/FantasyBaseballPlayoffs

Written by Albert Lang

Undervalued AL Starting Pitchers

In previous articles we've examined players who should improve their performance in 2009. Today, we examine American League starting pitchers who may not necessarily improve their performance, but should remain undervalued in 2009 fantasy drafts and auctions. Astute fantasy baseball managers will keep these guys in their back pocket come draft time.

1. John Danks

After getting kicked around a bit in his 2007 rookie season, Danks has rebounded nicely in 2008 and has put up some solid numbers. With the season nearing a close, Danks has a 3.20 ERA, 11 wins, and 150 K's in 183 innings pitched. He's a former number 1 draft pick, and possesses a terrific change up, a wicked curveball and a low 90's fastball. Expect Danks to build on his 2008 performance in 2009.

2. Gavin Floyd

Also a former first round draft pick, Floyd struggled in Philadelphia before landing with the Whitesox as the centerpiece of the Freddy Garcia trade. He struggled in 2007, but his immense talent was on display for all to see in 2008. He's racked up 16 wins to go with a 3.84 ERA and 1.24 WHIP. Expect more of the same in 2009, but he will be less valued than veterans with the same stats.

3. Scott Baker

After discussing two first round picks, we move onto Baker, who was a second round pick. Baker has four big league pitches, including a nasty sinking fastball and a knuckle-curve. He is known for his superb control, but his 132 K's in 165 innings pitched show an ability to strike out batters as well. Baker has chalked up a 3.59 ERA, 10 wins, and a 1.20 WHIP this season. Expect more wins and a similar WHIP in '09.

4. Shaun Marcum


This third-round draft choice followed up a solid, under the radar, 2007 season with an even better 2008 campaign. He has tossed 126 innings and has let up ony 126 hits, while walking 50 batters. We always love pitchers who have a superb IP:H ratio. Marcum also has shown an ability to strike out batters; whiffing almost one hitter per inning pitched. A 3.39 ERA and 10 wins round out the rest of Marcum's stats. As his stamina improves, Marcum should pitch deeper into games in 2009, which means more wins and strikeouts. We wouldn't be shocked, however, if his ERA regresses slightly.

5. Gil Meche

Another former first round pick, Meche is already a veteran of eight major leagues seasons. For most of his career, he was on the DNP list - DO NOT DRAFT, but his last three seasons have been surprisingly good. In fact, his numbers have steadily improved in each of the past four seasons. This year, he has a 4.05 ERA, a 1.31 WHIP, 13 wins, and 176 K's in 204 innings pitched. While we do not recommend drafting Meche early, he is a solid middle rotation guy in AL only leagues, and back of the rotation guy in mixed leagues. He's not an exciting option, but he's finally showing consistency and the ability go put up good fantasy numbers.

How to Win a Standard 5x5 H2H League

How do you win a standard* daily 5x5 h2h league?
It’s as easy as pick six lotto (or pick five if you have the tie-breaker).

Fantasy finals (especially in non-keeper leagues) are all about the last two weeks of the season. It’s entirely “what have you done for me lately.” Carlos Quentin: not so much, kick him off the roster. Ryan Howard: you’re happy you weathered the storm. Jayson Werth, you’re happy he’s done his best non-SF Aaron Rowand impersonation.

This means players like Werth, Shin-Soo Choo, Christian Guzman (yes even that Guzman), Kelly Shopach and maybe even Elijah Dukes need to find a way into your position player rotation.

You need to be streaming your roster spots to ensure you have a full hitting roster every day. Don’t worry about jettisoning an average player for fear your opponent will grab him. Any reasonable waiver period will make the gain negligible given what you made up by not having an empty roster spot. This does not mean I’m advocating dropping top 50 players…but outside of that, yeah sure.

This should signal that players now have different values given different circumstances. A valuable player in one league could very well be the love child of Jose Mesa/Armando Benitez in another.

If your competition is full of mashers and you haven’t beaten them all year in HRs, don’t worry about home runs. You need to find the categories you can win and go after those.

After two days, it is pretty clear what will and will not be competitive. You’re out in HRs and RBIs? Make sure you win Runs and SBs. This means it makes sense to drop the Carlos Penas of the world for a Willie (be it Harris or Tavaris) or Erick Patterson or Lastings Milledge or Coco Crisp.

Carlos Pena, in this instance, has no value to you or your opponent. If your opponent grabs the discarded Pena, he’ll only increase his lead in categories he’ll win anyway.

While streaming position players can help you on those Mondays and Thursdays, the real streaming power comes with starting pitching. Pitching categories are the easiest to manipulate on a week by week basis (because no one knows what they’ll get from virtually any hurler – viva Ted Lilly).

It’s important to know your opponent’s roster. High K pitchers on good win teams could make winning Wins and K’s difficult. So focus on vulturing saves (Hanrahan, the Orioles carousel, etc.), but make sure every pitcher you plug in maximizes ERA and WHIP.

Quite simply, it’s not about performing the best in every category and having the best all around team. It’s about performing the best in six categories.

There is a special caveat to the streaming – make sure you can get up early and make sure your league doesn’t have innings or moves caps.

If you can’t get up at 7:00 am, you might miss out on the best streamable pitchers. This means you’ll have to start streaming two days ahead or give up altogether.

If there is an IP limit, plan out how many innings you have left and what you can reasonably expect from your staff and move forward accordingly. Don’t leave starts or IPs out there, you’ll regret it.

If you’re up against a moves limit, you’ll have to maximize every move.

People may hate streamers not associated with a tickertape parade, but the strategy paves the way to fantasy gold. Look at the wire (in 10-12 team leagues), you’ll find:
Kevin Millwood (vs. OAK [1.35 ERA 0.90 WHIP])
Jamie Moyer (vs. FLA [3.12 ERA, 0.92 WHIP])
John Lannan (vs. SD [3.00 ERA, 1.33 WHIP])
Ryan Rowland-Smith (vs. LAA [4.05 ERA, 0.90 WHIP]).

I think you get the point.

Happy streaming and winning. Have a scenario, start/sit, or fantasy ethics question, e-mail me at albert_l_Langiii@yahoo.com

*standard = R, HR, RBI, SB, AVE, W, S, K, ERA, WHIP

AL Hitters for '09

We've covered NL hitters who could surprise people in 2009; now it's the American League's turn. Guys like Josh Hamilton, Carlos Quentin, and Alex Rodriguez are obvious choices. But who are the good players, who do not pose much of a risk, that should exceed expectations in 2009? Below are a few of the guys we have our eyes on.

1. Dustin Pedroia

Prior to this season Pedroia was a middle-of-the-pack second basemen who provided teams with a good batting average, but not much else. His minor league stats seemed to confirm that analysis. But all that changed this year, as Pedroia showed that he is a five category fantasy player. With the season coming to an end, Pedroia has already hit for .324-17-80-19. While his value will go up in 2009, we think he has a chance to exceed expectations, largely because of his league leading 52 doubles. The doubles lead us to believe that Pedroia could hit for more power in 2009 as he continues to mature. We expect a similar season to '08, but with more homers.

2. Nick Markakis

No stranger to fanballers, Markakis performed below most expectations in '08. He performed well - .300-20-86-10 is good, but many were disappointed with only 20 homers. Looking deeper into the stats, however, shows that Markakis hit 47 doubles. We expect Markakis to show greater power in 2009, with a season of .305-28-105-12 likely.

3. Evan Longoria

Longoria started the year in the minors, but began pummeling the ball after an early season call-up. To date Longoria has hit .278-25-82-7 in only 417 at-bats. Project that out to a full season, and you're talking about some serious offensive stats. Longoria is young, surrounded by other good, young hitters, and should only get better as he moves into his prime.

4. Kelly Shoppach

Shoppach has hit .268-21-55 in 396 at-bats. He routinely hit 20+ homers in less than 400 at-bats in the minors. If he gets 600 at-bats next season, 30 homers should be reachable. Beware, however, the possibility of a decline in batting average.

5. Denard Span

A virtual unknown before the season, Span has come on strong for the Twins. Most had expected Carlos Gomez to hold down the leadoff job for the year, but Span's .382 OBP% and 17 steals in only 322 at-bats convinced Ron Gardenhire to give him a shot in the role. Span has not disappointed, and has compiled a .298 BA, six homers and 42 rbi's to go with his impressive OBP%. If Span gets 600 at-bats in 2009, he could contend for the stolen base crown and should have a good batting average to boot.

Buying Low for 2009 - Pitcher's Edition

A few days ago we posted some National League hitters who should exceed expectations in 2009 and be worth a lot more than they can be obtained for on draft day. Today, we examine NL pitchers that can be bought at a discount price and should exceed expectations in 2009.

1. Ricky Nolasco

Nolasco is well-known to fantasy ballers as a former top prospect who went down in flames in his first couple of seasons in the Bigs. But for many pitchers it takes a couple years to get adjusted to the majors (see Maddux, Glavine, Smoltz, etc.) and Nolasco is no exception. He has put in a solid performance this year with a 3.56 ERA, 167 K's and 14 wins. His 1.12 whip is good for second best in the league, and perhaps his most impressive statistic is that he only has let up 176 hits in 192.1 innings pitched. Nolasco seems poised to follow up this breakout year with an even better campaign in '09.

2. Chad Billingsley

Okay, Billingsley is hardly an unknown. In fact, many people already consider Billingsley one of the best pitchers in the NL. So, why does he make this list? He makes it for a simple reason: He has improved every year and has such immense talent that the sky is the limit. This year he's already chalked up 15 wins, a 3.02 ERA and 189 K's. His hit-to-walk ratio is stellar, having allowed 169 hits in 188 innings. He gets into a bit of trouble with his control, which results in a medicore whip. Like Randy Johnson, Mark Langston and many others before him, as Billingsley's control improves, his numbers will become mindblowing. Especially if the Dodgers keep Manny Ramirez, Billingsley to challenge for 20 wins in 2009 with improvements in all other major pitching statistics.

3. Brett Myers

Many people thought that returning Myers to the rotation would result in a Cy Young worthy year in 2008. Alas, Myers struggled badly in the first half of the season and his velocity was down to little league levels. But Myers rebounded strongly in the second half and has been lights out for the past few months. Myers has lowered his ERA from over 6.00 to a very respectable 4.06. Add in the 10 wins and 157 K's, and Myers turned out to be a decent pitcher for those patient enough to keep him for the entire season. His end-of-the-year numbers, however, will fall well short of the top performers in the league, so he may be obtained at a considerable discount in 2009. A 3.50 ERA, 16 wins and 185 strikeouts is a reasonable early prediction for him in '09.

4. Dave Bush

This guy was a sleeper on everyone's list in 2007, and those teams unfortunate enough to draft him got nailed harder than Pam Anderson in her infamous Brett Michaels video. Bush was sent down to the minors to work on his mechanics, and returned to form after being called up midway through the '08 season. In a shortened season, Bush has a 4.24 ERA, 9 wins and 103 K's. It is his 1.15 WHIP (fifth best in the NL), however, that sets him apart. Few owners know about Bush, and fewer still are willing to gamble on him maintaining his performance in 2009. If you feel like rolling the dice, grab him. He could end up with a 4.10 ERA, 13 wins, 150 K's, and a 1.17 WHIP in '09.

Buying Low for '09

With the '08 season winding down, it is never too early to begin looking at who may do even better next season. It is easy to pay top dollar for Pujols or Braun, and expect solid across-the-board stats. But most leagues are won or lost by the in-between players; the players who are nothing special but overperform everyone's expectations. Here are some of my early batting favorites for NL-only leagues in 2009:

1. Corey Hart

He's at .276-20-83-23, so many people already know about his talent. But what people may not realize is that he has 43 doubles, which indicates he still has a lot more home run potential as he matures. 30 homers is not an unreasonable expectation next year.

2. Stephen Drew

Drew was drafted with a lot of hype, but has generally underperformed expectations. At .281-17-58-3, he's having a solid, if unspectacular year. With 37 doubles thus far, however, it is likely that Drew could eclipse 25 four-baggers next season.

3. Lastings Milledge

Plagued by injuries and a lineup meeker than Ohio State's offense against USC, Milledge still has tons of potential. So far this year he has hit .262-14-57-22 in only 478 at-bats. Expect improvements in every category next season. A season similar to Corey Hart's 2008 year is not unlikely.

4. Jayson Werth.

Werth is one of the most underrated players in the league. He helps you in both the power and speeed categories, and hits for a respectable average. Next year he should get more playing time, which should enable him to dwarf his 2008 numbers. Currently, he's at .276-22-62-17, but in only 370 at-bats.

5. Elijah Dukes

After struggling in the early part of the season, this Nationals outfielder has quietly put together a good year in limited playing time. In only 242 at-bats, Dukes is hitting .273-11-39-13, with 16 doubles. Equally impressive is his .375 on-base percentage. If Dukes wins a starting job next spring, he has the power potential to hit 25 homers with a good number of steals too.

First Rotisserie Baseball League

There is an interesting article in Sports Illustrated's Vault about the formation of the first Rotisserie Baseball league. http://vault.sportsillustrated.cnn.com/vault/article/magazine/MAG1122055/index.htm?eref=sihp

Enjoy.

Trading Strategies for the Beginning of the Season

Strategy Session

Trading Strategies for the Beginning of the Season

By: Evan Rosen

One month into the season and I’m guessing you’re already dying to make a trade. After all, now that the draft is over, you need something to keep you off the streets and occupy your mind. Crafting deals and swindling opponents is half the fun of fantasy baseball. There is nothing better than addressing your team’s weakness through a well-timed trade. But when should you start trading? How should you go about it? I answer those questions and more in this week’s Strategy Session.

When to Start Trading
In last week’s article I stated that stats do not begin to matter until the first week of June. Therefore, as a general rule, I do not like making trades until June because it is difficult to truly evaluate your team’s strengths and weaknesses until then. For instance, if your team relies solely on Jimmy Rollins and Jose Reyes for steals, you’re probably at the bottom of the pack right now in that category. Does that mean you should trade for steals now? Hell no! With Rollins and Reyes on your team you’ll eventually be fine in steals.

But every general rule has its exceptions, and that applies here too. There are certain instances where trading, even as early as May 1, makes good sense. For example, if you know you are going to be weak in a category you should address it as soon as possible. If you have no closers (or backup closers) on your roster consider trading for one. It’s not like waiting until June is going to somehow magically transform a 1 in saves to a 6 or 7. Each day you wait allows your competitors to increase their lead in the category. Likewise, if you have a team full of power hitters and the only thing any of your players has stolen in the past 5 years was the heart of some unfortunate baseball groupie, you may want to trade for steals.

Know your team, address strengths and weaknesses, but do so with an eye toward how you expect your players to perform by seasons end – not how they are performing as of May 1. In other words, don’t do anything rash that you may regret later.

Buy Low, Sell High
The old adage about the stock market also applies to fantasy baseball. Take advantage of the skewed stats that appear in April. If you have Ryan Theriot, and can afford to give up his steals, now is a perfect time to trade him. He’s hitting .340, but last season his batting average was only .266. It is highly unlikely that he’ll finish the year at .290, let alone .340. Likewise, Ryan Dempster has 4 wins and a 3.16 ERA, but hasn’t had an ERA under 4.94 as a starting pitchers since the year 2000. You can capitalize on Theriot and Dempster’s great start by trading them now before their stats return to career norms.

Sometimes you don’t even need to wait for a few weeks accumulation of stats. Depending on the sophistication of your league members, if a player has one good game you can try trading him immediately. For example, in the early 1990’s, Lloyd McClendon was called up from the minors to play for the Pittsburgh Pirates and immediately hit a grand slam. I picked up McClendon, talked up his grand slam and his impressive minor league history (before the internet so my opponent could not verify) and traded him for Brett Butler, the early 90’s version of Juan Pierre. Similarly, if someone hits for the cycle, pitches a no-hitter, or hits three or more homers in a game, you may be able to parlay that one day of performance into a better player.

Addressing Strengths & Weaknesses
One theme of my forthcoming articles on trades will be to not only analyze what your team needs, but to also determine in what categories your potential trading partners are weak. This may sound obvious, but too many fantasy baseball owners fail to take their opponent’s weaknesses into account when crafting trades. Instead, they’ll offer Chone Figgins for Aramis Ramirez and justify it by saying, “it’s a fair trade.” But if the team you’re offering Figgins to already has Michael Bourne, Jose Reyes, and Brian Roberts, he won’t need Figgins’ steals.

The better approach is to find a team who needs help in a category in which your team is strong. In return, you should seek players that will address your weaknesses. If you are strong in homers and saves, but weak in wins and steals, you should look for a trading partner with the inverse of your own strengths and weaknesses. Trade your homers and saves to a team that needs help in those categories, and in return get wins and steals to address your areas of concern.

How to offer a trade
Many fantasy baseball owners make official trade offers on their league’s home page and wait to see if the other owner accepts it. No offense, but this is a terrible idea. What if you forget you have an official trade offer outstanding and a player’s status changes during that time? In other words, what if you made an offer for Rafael Soriano before he got injured and forgot to rescind the offer? The other team would be within his or her rights to accept the deal – especially since you offered it. You’d end up with a player who is on the disabled list! Likewise, Brian Fuentes was recently named the closer for the Rockies. If you offered Brian Fuentes to someone last week and did not rescind it quick enough, you’d be out a closer.

The better technique is to e-mail your fellow owners with proposals. Then, after they’ve agreed in principle to the deal, you officially propose it on the league website. This avoids the problem outlined above. It also gives you a chance to explain the trade, which is imperative.
Whenever making a deal be sure to provide a concise, bullet point, explanation highlighting the benefits for the owner. For example, let’s assume you’re offering Nate McLouth for Chipper Jones. You might say something like this:

“This deal will help both our teams. Even though McLouth is not as big a name as Chipper, he’ll end up helping you more from a fantasy perspective. Here’s why:

1. McLouth is a 5 category player – he’ll get you 20+ homers and 20+ steals.
2. In limited playing time last season (only 329 at-bats) McLouth hit 13 homers.
3. McLouth was a top prospect and dominated the minors. (30+ steals with developing power from 2003 - 2005)
4. Already this year, McLouth is off to a great start – .330-7-25-2
5. Chipper is a great player, but you need steals which he won’t provide. Plus, he gets injured every season and hasn’t reached 600 at-bats since 1998.
6. I hate giving up McClouth, especially for an injury prone player, but I need a third-basemen and have xyz outfielder on my bench to replace McLouth.”

This explanation increases the odds that the deal will get done. First, it highlights McLouth’s value, making the other owner more likely to want him. Second, it knocks Chipper’s value. It raises a chief concern inherent in owning Chipper – that he may get injured. Third, it explains why you are willing to do the deal. A normal person would say, if you think McLouth is so valuable and Chipper’s such a risk, why are you willing to do the deal? What trick do you have up your sleeve? Don’t wait for these questions – address them in your initial e-mail. Of course, the way McLouth is going he really could have a better season than Chipper!

Use these tips and you’ll improve your team in no time.

Trades

At fantasybaseball101.com one of our offerings is to help you make good trades. Whether the trade has already been consummated and your league is mulling veto, or you want a second opinion before committing to a trade, you can contact us and get detailed thoughts on the trade.

This has been a successful venture for our site thus far in the early season, and we want to spread the love. Below I will begin sharing with you some of the trade questions we've seen and our responses so that you may learn some useful bits of information yourself. You can also chime in on your own about trades by visiting our forum: http://fantasybaseball101.com/Forum.html

The Question:
Is it advisable to make any of these trades:
1) paul lo duca for ryan doumit
2) barry zito for brandon backe
3) aaron rowand for bill hall
4) j.j. hardy for jeff keppinger
5) brandon lyon for trevor hoffman
Which ones should i make?

Our Response:
The one trades worth making for you is : Hoffman for Lyons.
The others are skewed in favor of the other team. This trade nets you more than the all-time saves leader. It also nets you a player with a defined role that is unlikely to change as quickly as Brandon Lyon. Putting aside the fact that folks like Kevin Gregg crop up every season and do well, there are few "staples" in closing as reliable as Hoffman, Mariano Rivera, Billy Wagner, etc. When you have the opportunity to trade a Brandon Lyon for a Trevor Hoffman, as the owner of Lyons, I would jump on such a deal. Lyon will have to fight off Tony Pena and Chad Qualls for work in the 9th inning, whereas Hoffman will be the closer in San Diego until he can't throw a baseball, at which point they will choose a successor. Heath Bell and Cla Meredith are not real competitors at this point for the job, so to me, this is open and shut. Take Hoffman, trade Lyon, and table the other deals as they seem to serve you little purpose (with special emphasis on the deal of Hardy for Keppinger - who may well be out of a job should Alex Gonzalez ever return).

Bonds to Cardinals!

Earlier today the St. Louis Cardinals announced that they have signed Barry Bonds to a one-year contract. Bond is expected to hit third in the Cardinals lineup, and will relegate Skip Schumaker to the bench. Despite his age, Bonds managed 28 homers in only 340 at-bats last season with a .276 BA. With Albert Pujols and Troy Glaus providing more lineup protection than he was afforded in San Fran, Bonds should be good for another 25 homers and an outstanding OBP%.




APRIL FOOLS! We hope you didn't drop someone for Bonds -- we just couldn't resist.

Who to Target & Downgrade?

Everyone knows that Alex Rodriguez is a great pick in any fantasy baseball draft format. But figuring out who the next breakout player will be is a more difficult challenge. In this entry, I profile players who should provide good value in 2008.

Good Value Players
1. Nick Markakis - Only 24 & still improving. Solid five category player.
2. Chad Billingsley - Full year in the rotation should lead to mega K's, good wins.
3. Brett Myers - Back in the rotation on a winning team. 16 wins + with K's is realistic.
4. Adrian Beltre - Three year trend looks good, still only 28 and entering his prime.
5. Carlos Gomez - Starting for the Twins. Cheap source of speed in AL only leagues.
6. Derek Lee - Two years removed from broken wrist could lead to return to 30+ homers.
7. Jermaine Dye - Second half shows power is still there. Expect ~31 homers, .275 BA.
8. Corey Patterson - Starting for the Reds. Bandbox of a park, could lead to 20-30 season.
9. Ian Kinsler - 20-20 last year and at age 25, only going to get better.
10. Jeremy Hermida - Terrific second half, could finally reach potential scouts drooled over.
11. Ty Wigginton - Journeyman is undervalued and should provide 25 homers at 2B or 3B.
12. Mike Mussina - Terrible '08, but 1 yr ago had 15 W, 3.51 ERA season. May be worth the risk.
13. Jason Bay - Only 29, top contender for comeback player of the year.
14. Richie Weeks - 9 homers, 10 steals in 98 September at-bats. Could have break-out season.
15. Alex Gordon - Solid second-half overcome atrocious start. Will breakout, question is when.
16. Rafael Furcal - Played injured through first half of '07. Stats from '06 more likely for '08.
17. Troy Tulowitski - No trouble adjusting to the majors. 23 years old, will continue to develop.
18. Delmon Young - Solid '07, should lead to further power development in '08.
19. Austin Kearns - Moving to a new ballpark will help. If stays healthy, ready for breakout year
20. Felix Hernandez - Only 21, ready to become a star. Good source of K's and wins.
21. Yovani Gollardo - Injured now, but this kid is for real. Mega source of K's.
22. Randy Johnson - Don't forget about this strikeout king. Out til mid-April, but late pick
23. Travis Hafner - Not nearly as bad as '07, not as good as '06. Expect '05 stats - 305-33-108
24. Alex Rios - Improved in each of the past three years, entering prime at age 27.
25. Vernon Wells - Much better than '07, but don't count on SB. At age 29, expect .275-27-97

Players on the Decline
1. Dontrelle Willis - Atrocious spring, atrocious '07 and now has to face DH. Yikes.
2. Manny Ramirez - Decline in '07 was no fluke. Still good, but at 35 best days are behind him.
3. Barry Zito - Bad spring, and declining 3 year trend. Terrible team, no opportunity for wins.
4. Magglio Ordonez - Great player, but not as good as '07 performance. Likely to be overvalued.
5. Hanley Ramirez - Great player but won't put up '07 numbers. FL wants him to steal less in 08
6. Carlos Zambrano - Look at his three year trend. 'Nuff said.
7. Aaron Rowand - Leaving good hitters park, always an injury risk. Expect a decline.
8. Ted Lilly - Good pitcher, also not as good as '07. Expect wins to stay same, but ERA to go up.
9. Brian Bannister - Stats are better than his talent level. Expect higher ERA in '08.
10. Carlos Pena - Overvalued. 30 homers - yes. 46 - no.
11. Mike Lowell - Fenway is good fit for him, but decline expected at age 34.
12. Jay Bruce & Homer Bailey - Dusty Baker is anti-rookie. Both were sent down to minors.
13. Dave Roberts - Good source of SB, but injury risk and R. Davis, F. Lewis, & E. Velez on deck
14. Joba Chamberlain - Boatloads of talent, but not as good as '07. Starting in the 'pen.
15. Eric Gagne - Major Injury risk, got shelled in Boston last year. Time as elite closer is over.
16. Jose Valverde - Great in '07, but look at '06 stats. Cannot be trusted, so overvalued.
17. Chad Cordero - Solid pick, but contract year. If (when) Nats fall out of race, he's trade bait.

Boatload of Updates

With the start of the season just hours away, here are some updates on position battles, demotions to the minors, and performance appraisals.

1. Manager Lou Pinella has named Kerry Wood the closer for the Cubs. Wood beat out Carlos Marmol and Bob Howry for the job.

2. John Smoltz has tightness in his shoulder and may begin the season on the DL. http://www.ajc.com/services/content/sports/braves/stories/2008/03/23/smoltz_0324.html?cxtype=rss&cxsvc=7&cxcat=21

3. Mike Hampton has worked his way back from several injury-plagued seasons and appears to be set to start the season as part of Atlanta's rotation. Hampton has looked sharp this spring, compiling a 1.98 ERA in 13 2/3 innings pitched.

4. Cameron Maybin, expected by many to begin the season as the Marlins starting centerfielder, may end up being demoted to triple A. He is hitting an infinitesimal .188 this spring.

5. Brandon Lyon, the Diamondbacks' closer, is having a miserable spring and may lose his job to Chad Qualls or Tony Pena. In 6 2/3 innings pitched Lyon has only one strikeout and has given up 12 runs and 16 hits.

6. Fantasy Baseball owners expecting to get a bunch of steals from Lastings Milledge or Felipe Lopez should think again. According to manager Manny Acta, stolen base attempts lead to too many unnecessary outs. After taking over for Frank Robinson, one of Acta's first acts (pardon the pun) was to significantly reduced the number of stolen bases attempts. Expect more of the same this season. http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2008/03/22/AR2008032202523.html

7. John Maine has looked awesome this spring. He now has thrown 25 1/3 innings, accumulating 28 strikeouts and a 1.78 ERA.

8. Carlos Gomez, obtained in the Johan Santana trade from the Mets, has won the starting centerfield job. But many scouts believe Gomez could use more seasoning in the minors. Expect Gomez to have a relatively low batting average, but rack up the stolen bases.

9. Evan Longoria, widely assumed to be the opening day third basemen for the Rays, has been sent down to triple A. Apparently, Longoria's demotion was less to do with performance issues and more to do with the Rays being able to retain rights to him for an additional year.

10. Jarrod Saltalamacchia, a favorite sleeper candidate for many Roto players, thinks his demotion to triple A is imminent. Salty was quoted as saying that he will be sent down if the Rangers hold onto Gerald Laird. http://www.dallasnews.com/sharedcontent/dws/spt/baseball/rangers/stories/032408dnsporanglede.3382838.html

11. Francisco Liriano is back and lookin' good! In his last outing he tossed a no-hitter for five innings against the Orioles, and struck out five.

Who to Draft?

So, 24 hours before draft day you find out you have the second overall pick in your 5x5 mixed league draft. Who do you take?

The first overall pick will assuredly be Alex Rodriguez. If you are so lucky that ARod falls to #2, draft him and immediately run to the local grocery store to buy a lottery ticket.

More realistically, the choice is between the following stars: Chase Utley, Matt Holliday, Albert Pujols, David Wright, Miguel Cabrera, and the trio of shorstops, Jimmy Rollins, Hanley Ramirez, and Jose Reyes.

It is a daunting task to choose between such amazing fantasy players. But lets analyze each to come up with an answer. First, let's start with the premise that your first round pick should anchor your team. He should be reliable, consistent, and put up huge numbers. Second, all other things being equal, it is preferable to draft a player at a weak position. Third, are there any causes of concern (e.g. injury risk, less playing time, weaker lineup protection, etc.) for the upcoming season. We review each in turn.

Chase Utley: Over the past three seasons Utley has averaged .310-27-103-109-13. Pretty impressive, especially for a second basemen. Utley has to be a consideration because he plays in a hitter's ballpark, and at age 29 he is entering the prime of his career. With a tantalizing ability to help your team in all five categories, Utley is a definite first round pick.

Matt Holliday: Holliday has morphed from a platoon player to a genuine fantasy baseball stud. He has improved in every year of his big-league career, and is still in his prime at age 29. Last season, Holliday hit .339-36-137-120-11. Moreover, there is every reason to think Holliday can replicate, or dare I say, exceed his '07 performance. Compared to Utley, Holliday is a better overall player, but Utley has the advantage of playing at a weak position.

Albert Pujols: Perhaps the most talented player on this list, Pujols only hit .327 with 32 homers and 103 rbi's. Bothered by an elbow problem all season, Pujols opted to rest it rather than undergo surgery. Early reports from this spring suggest that the elbow could break down at any minute. Reports like this make Pujols a risky gambit in the first round. Even if his elbow holds up, manager Tony LaRussa is sure to rest him more often, which should impact his statistics. If healthy, however, Pujols is a leading contender for second overall pick, and could put up numbers like he did in 2006, when he hit .330-49-137-119-7.

David Wright: Too often the New York media over-hypes players on the Mets and Yankees. But for Wright the hype is justified. After all, how many third basemen are capable of swiping 30 bags? Wright is still young -- only 25 -- and has room to grow. Last season, Wright had his best year yet, hitting .325-30-107-113-34. We expect Wright to put up similar numbers in '08.

Miguel Cabrera: Unheralded while playing for the Marlins, Cabrera is one of the best hitters in the game today. Over the past three seasons Cabrera has averaged: .328-31-103-116-4. The amazing thing about those stats is that he had virtually no lineup protection in Florida. Having moved to Detroit, a ballpark whose configurations should positively affect his stats, he now has players like Magglio Ordonez and Gary Sheffield to protect him. Cabrera will be turning 25 in mid-April and could have a monster offensive season in '08. The hot corner is not a particularly strong position, so Cabrera warrants consideration as a top draft pick. But he's probably not as valuable as some of the other players on this list, so perhaps a mid to late first round pick for him would be better.

Jimmy Rollins: Rollins seems to have pulled a Willie Mays Hayes the past few seasons. Originally a slap hitter with a ton of speed, Rollins has developed into a legitimate power threat. Last season was the best of his career; he hit .296-30-94-139-41. Playing in a hitter's ballpark, and only 29 years old, there is every reason to believe Rollins can repeat his '07 performance in '08. Although lacking batting average compared to other players on this list, the runs and stolen bases he gets more than make up for it. Rollins plays shortstop, a traditionally weak position, that is deeper than usual this season. His ability to contribute in all five categories makes Rollins a strong consideration for second overall. Also note that if you are in a points league that counts triples, Rollins is an outstanding pick in that format too.

Hanley Ramirez: Admired by many fantasy baseball "experts" for his dominant 2007 season, Hanley has been picked second overall in many roto leagues this winter/spring. Building off an impressive debut season in 2006, Ramirez astounded many with his 2008 performance of: .332-29-81-125-51. Clearly, if Ramirez replicates that performance in '08 he is an outstanding second overall pick. But unlike many experts, we do not believe Ramirez warrants a high first round pick. There are too many question marks for our liking. First, he had off season shoulder surgery which could impact his performance. Second, he no longer has Miguel Cabrera in the lineup offering protection. Pitchers will not be surprised by his capability and will be more likely to pitch around him in '08. Third, as good as he is, Ramirez has only one season of dominance under his belt. Who is to know whether Ramirez's '07 performance will be the norm, or if he will revert back to his '06 season, which was good, but certainly not worthy of the second overall pick? Our bet is for somewhere in between.

Jose Reyes: The best overall speedster in baseball, Reyes has averaged .284-13-65-113-67 over the past three seasons. The benefit of having Reyes on your team is that you do not need to worry about steals for the rest of the draft. Reyes also has the ability to hit for power, as illustrated by the 19 homers he hit in '06. At only 24 years of age, most scouts believe Reyes has yet to reach his peak. If Reyes continues to steal 70+ bases and increases his power numbers, he could eventually be the number one player drafted overall. But he's not there yet. 2008 is an atypical year in that there are many players capable of stealing 20 bases or more. Thus, speed is not at a premium that it usually is, and as a consequence, Reyes is not as valuable as other players on this list.

So, who should you take? Just about any of the players listed above will be good bets and be a boon to your team. But for our team, we prefer Wright or Rollins.